Monday, March 23, 2009

The Emerging Markets Rally is Here

So says Mark Mobius.

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aykWeSWzvFsA&refer=home

IS this for real or not, we don't know.

We see strong base building in, but not limited to Japanese small caps, Korean shares, Taiwanese shares, Hong Kong shares, and Russian shares. We don't see these markets dipping to new lows.

Many of these markets crashed in October and early November. Unlike the US, they did not pierce those lows and appear to have successfully retested the bottom.

Our call on Russian equities, was spot on and the RTS has rallied 40% in less than 2 months.

The technicals, simple ones at that, help us line up the probabilities so that they are in our favor. The best advice we can give is to never attempt to catch a falling knife.

Thursday, March 19, 2009

Gold and Hard Assets to Gain with Fed Money Destruction

The Fed is buying treausuries, which is in fact money printing, or monetization of debt, in order to hold the yield curve down.

This will be excellent for gold and hard assets. It is why we were positioned well ahead of the crowd and used the November - February months to acquire the gold miners of our choice at rock bottom prices!

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aOsvwdYztl7Q

Paulson Joins the Gold Rush

John Paulson, one of the greatest hedge fund investors ever has acquired an 11% stake in Anglogold Ashanti from Anglo American.

Paulson joins Einhorn from Greenlight and Loeb from Third Point in the great gold hunt.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/paulson-acquires-stake-south-african/story.aspx?guid=%7B2CD83706%2DF504%2D487D%2D8665%2DFE2DBD724352%7D&siteid=yhoof

Monday, March 16, 2009

Swiss Money Printing ! The Race to the Bottom

Global banks around the world are engaged in both quantitative and qualitative easing.

Qualitatively they are lowering the standards for the collateral that they are willing to buy or lend for.

The race to the bottom is here. No one wants a strong currency. This should be apparent to everyone. This money printing will be positive for hard assets, especially precious metals.

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2009/03/12/business/EU-Swiss-Franc.php

JP Morgan Says Buy Goldmines

To which we say, we are already there, and they clearly missed the bottom call as most gold miners have doubled and tripled.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aNHAoeICrVlE

Lets make this easy for everyone. The two largest inputs into mining are labor and energy.

Oil has collapsed from $147 into the 40s. Check.

Gold is sold for US dollars, the SA rand, Mexican peso, and Australian dollar have all collapsed. Check. This means that local lobor costs, denominated in those currencies have all fallen by at least a third.

Gold in USD and other currencies is stronfg, therefore the outlook for miners is excellent.

Everyone should well be aware by now, but even with a more than tripling of price of gold, gold supply is lower than in 2001.

There you go.