Israel and Hamas are at it again. Israel rejects the peace the 48 hour truce.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/12/31/africa/01mideast.php
Who is right? Guess what? We don't care! Governments world wide are corrupt. It is their nature. They are the Elite and are there to serve the Elite. The U.S. is managed by Corporate Statists per Marc Faber.
Now that the good times are gone we can picture panic, government coercion, higher taxes, fear tactics etc...
Besides we like gold. It is cheap and precious metals, as stated earlier are our favorite play for 2009. BUT, we mean as of now. Any speculation becomes attractive to us as the right price and with the odds in our favor.
Many more attractive speculations will develop throughout the year. We will make it know to all when we find them.
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
2009- The Year of the Geopolitical Mess Says Faber
Fund managers best bone up on History and Geography 101, as these forces will exert large pressures on markets in the coming years. Marc Faber of the Gloom Boom Doom report expects 2009 to be quite interesting geopolitically in a note released today.
Lets see, Georgia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Gaza, Iran, Pakistan, India, Venezuela, the DRC, and numerous other possible flash points across the world. This is why we are long defense as a core of our portfolio. We use an etf (ITA) and Fidelity's Defense and Aerospace fund (FSDAX).
Won't be as easy as picking GE, WMT, MSFT, and KO in the 90s or Vale, Petrobras, and Satayam in the mid 2000s!
Lets see, Georgia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Gaza, Iran, Pakistan, India, Venezuela, the DRC, and numerous other possible flash points across the world. This is why we are long defense as a core of our portfolio. We use an etf (ITA) and Fidelity's Defense and Aerospace fund (FSDAX).
Won't be as easy as picking GE, WMT, MSFT, and KO in the 90s or Vale, Petrobras, and Satayam in the mid 2000s!
Top Billionaire blow Ups in the US
http://www.forbes.com/2008/12/16/billionaires-adelson-casino-biz-billies-cz_dg_1216biggestlosers.html?partner=popstories
Take a bow Sheldon Adelson! We have to go back to ... lets see 2000 or 2001 and Michael Saylor at Microstrategy to see such a massive destruction of wealth.
Boone Pickens should be here, given his hedge fund performance and redemptions. We like Boone though.
Take a bow Sheldon Adelson! We have to go back to ... lets see 2000 or 2001 and Michael Saylor at Microstrategy to see such a massive destruction of wealth.
Boone Pickens should be here, given his hedge fund performance and redemptions. We like Boone though.
Biggest Billionaire Blow Ups
Who lost the most? Forbes tell us.
Frankly we think the list is all Russian oligarchs, emerging market impresarios, and plenty of hedge fund and private equity operators.
http://www.forbes.com/home/2008/12/22/billionaires-mitttal-ross-biz-billies-cz_lk_1222billieblowups.html
Frankly we think the list is all Russian oligarchs, emerging market impresarios, and plenty of hedge fund and private equity operators.
http://www.forbes.com/home/2008/12/22/billionaires-mitttal-ross-biz-billies-cz_lk_1222billieblowups.html
What Ails Gazprom?
Hubris, Soviet Era management, crushing debt load.
Nonetheless, we have a small speculative long position, as it is the Kremlin's foreign policy weapon of choice.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/12/30/business/gazprom.php
here is hoping that the Kremlin doesn't dilute all of our holdings!
Nonetheless, we have a small speculative long position, as it is the Kremlin's foreign policy weapon of choice.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/12/30/business/gazprom.php
here is hoping that the Kremlin doesn't dilute all of our holdings!
Sunday, December 28, 2008
When the Money Runs Out, Just Borrow More!
Why the current government response is doomed to fail:
http://iht.com/articles/2008/12/28/news/28goodman.php
http://iht.com/articles/2008/12/28/news/28goodman.php
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Predictions for 2009
We don't like to make predictions. We feel it is a fool's game. We buy that which is going up, and step aside of sell short that which is going down.
What we are stating is obvious and should serve as a simple reminder to our readers.
1) We have been extremely negative on housing for years. Our basic premise is unchanged. Housing will continue to collapse. Hold outs such as DC (especially far out exurbs) and NYC in the U.S. will come under great pressure.
2) London and Moscow are tremendously overvalued. If we owned there, we would be selling as quick as possible.
3) We like gold and silver. We believe that both will be much higher in the coming years. We continue to accumulate both. We are wildy bullish on 1921 an earlir Morgan Silver dollars. Either raw BU/UNC or graded NGC or PCGS Mint State 64s.
4) Palladium which is given to boom and bust cycles, is looking attractive to us in the high 170s per ounce, after rallying to over $560 in the year. We will gently dip a toe in this market at reasonable prices. We are unwilling to pay $100 over spot for the bullion at this time, so we shall be selective.
5) Platinum - We are not yet buying, but watching for a basing pattern and then an uptrend. We will purchase more platinum in the next year or two. At what price ? We don't know.
What we are stating is obvious and should serve as a simple reminder to our readers.
1) We have been extremely negative on housing for years. Our basic premise is unchanged. Housing will continue to collapse. Hold outs such as DC (especially far out exurbs) and NYC in the U.S. will come under great pressure.
2) London and Moscow are tremendously overvalued. If we owned there, we would be selling as quick as possible.
3) We like gold and silver. We believe that both will be much higher in the coming years. We continue to accumulate both. We are wildy bullish on 1921 an earlir Morgan Silver dollars. Either raw BU/UNC or graded NGC or PCGS Mint State 64s.
4) Palladium which is given to boom and bust cycles, is looking attractive to us in the high 170s per ounce, after rallying to over $560 in the year. We will gently dip a toe in this market at reasonable prices. We are unwilling to pay $100 over spot for the bullion at this time, so we shall be selective.
5) Platinum - We are not yet buying, but watching for a basing pattern and then an uptrend. We will purchase more platinum in the next year or two. At what price ? We don't know.
Ukraine Faces the Russian Bear
A major problem with Ukraine and with much of Western Europe is the dependency on Russian natural gas. This is the reason we have a small long position in Gazprom.
Ukraine owes Russia over $2 billion. It is a cold winter and it could get much colder.
It should be know by all investors that Gazprom is the choice weapon of Russian foreign diplomacy.
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/12/24/business/EU-Russia-Ukraine-Gas.php
Ukraine owes Russia over $2 billion. It is a cold winter and it could get much colder.
It should be know by all investors that Gazprom is the choice weapon of Russian foreign diplomacy.
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/12/24/business/EU-Russia-Ukraine-Gas.php
A look Inside a Swiss Private Bank
When discretion is necessary, Geneva and Zurich are the spots.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/12/24/business/24ubp.php
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/12/24/business/24ubp.php
Monday, December 22, 2008
In Praise of Common Sense
Bill Fleckenstein offers some common sense on the current housing and financial mess.
He has been spot on for quite some time.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/the-meddlers-cant-tame-the-market.aspx
He has been spot on for quite some time.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/the-meddlers-cant-tame-the-market.aspx
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Madoff Fund Returns Were So Good that . . .
Farfield partners had very little of their own money in them!
Due diligence, what a racket.
http://iht.com/articles/2008/12/22/business/22fairfield.php?page=1
Due diligence, what a racket.
http://iht.com/articles/2008/12/22/business/22fairfield.php?page=1
Friday, December 19, 2008
SEC Had Been Warned of Madoff For Years
So what did they do? Nothing, proving that malfunctioning government agencies are useless. Like the government in general.
So what do they do? Lull investors into a false sense of security. hey the SEC says this fund is Kosher, lets invest. The government as we have seen, cannot do anything right, at all. yet investors gladly believe what their regulatory agencies say. The Fed, SEC all of these agencies have simply created enormous amounts of moral hazard in the economy.
Lesson, there is absolutely zero substitute for doing ones one homework.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28310980/
So what do they do? Lull investors into a false sense of security. hey the SEC says this fund is Kosher, lets invest. The government as we have seen, cannot do anything right, at all. yet investors gladly believe what their regulatory agencies say. The Fed, SEC all of these agencies have simply created enormous amounts of moral hazard in the economy.
Lesson, there is absolutely zero substitute for doing ones one homework.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28310980/
So Whom Do We Blame for the Financials?
Their payment of 250k I banking bonuses last year for 2nd year associates and pay packages that went to the moon?
We don't blame the banks or the employees. If A-Rod can make tens of millions a year hitting a baseball, why should people not get paid as much as they want?
No, the blame falls on the mutual fund industry, investment consultants, and high net worth firms.
Were not shops like T Rowe Price, Dodge & Cox, Pzena, Fidelity , Vangaurd, and Legg Mason the largest investors in shares of Citi, Morgan Stanley, Fannie, Bear, Countrywide, Indymac and assorted banking stocks?
If they didn't like the pay the banks were giving out, SELL the SHARES! Don't vote for the same board members. Obviously plenty of people shorted the financials. Chanos, Paulson, et al.
Jim Rogers, Marc Faber and Bill Fleckenstein have been publicly dubious of financials' earnings, pay and stock prices for years -long before the stock plummeted and LEH and BSC slipped into eternity.
The blame falls squarely on the legions of bottom-up fundamental analyst with their CFAs that bought the story the banks peddled. The mutual funds were buying Bear and Fannie right up to the collapse! The trend had already reversed, the world knew these companies were doomed.
Then it falls on the investment consultants and their pseudo "due diligence." Who in their right mind would recommend a value fund that was over 40% in financials at the end of 2007 and into 2008?!
Yet they did, by the legions. Why? Because the Russell 1000 Value index was 40% financials and that was their benchmark.
And you see, the largest mutual funds are closet indexers anyway (they get paid on fees). And as investment consultants were are not smart enough to pick the stocks, but we'll pick the funds. So if the R1000 Value index is down 50%, but our "recommended funds are only down 45% we are geniuses! No one ill fire us. Oh and we don't have an original thought in the entire fiber of our beings! We worship American Century, T Rowe, Legg Mason! How could our idols - the fund managers ever be wrong? They are deities! Lets not question them being 45% in financials as the entire sector is collapsing!
If you are an aggrieved investors be mad at your consulting firm, your mutual fund and yourself. You bought a story that was obviously unsustainable.
We don't blame the banks or the employees. If A-Rod can make tens of millions a year hitting a baseball, why should people not get paid as much as they want?
No, the blame falls on the mutual fund industry, investment consultants, and high net worth firms.
Were not shops like T Rowe Price, Dodge & Cox, Pzena, Fidelity , Vangaurd, and Legg Mason the largest investors in shares of Citi, Morgan Stanley, Fannie, Bear, Countrywide, Indymac and assorted banking stocks?
If they didn't like the pay the banks were giving out, SELL the SHARES! Don't vote for the same board members. Obviously plenty of people shorted the financials. Chanos, Paulson, et al.
Jim Rogers, Marc Faber and Bill Fleckenstein have been publicly dubious of financials' earnings, pay and stock prices for years -long before the stock plummeted and LEH and BSC slipped into eternity.
The blame falls squarely on the legions of bottom-up fundamental analyst with their CFAs that bought the story the banks peddled. The mutual funds were buying Bear and Fannie right up to the collapse! The trend had already reversed, the world knew these companies were doomed.
Then it falls on the investment consultants and their pseudo "due diligence." Who in their right mind would recommend a value fund that was over 40% in financials at the end of 2007 and into 2008?!
Yet they did, by the legions. Why? Because the Russell 1000 Value index was 40% financials and that was their benchmark.
And you see, the largest mutual funds are closet indexers anyway (they get paid on fees). And as investment consultants were are not smart enough to pick the stocks, but we'll pick the funds. So if the R1000 Value index is down 50%, but our "recommended funds are only down 45% we are geniuses! No one ill fire us. Oh and we don't have an original thought in the entire fiber of our beings! We worship American Century, T Rowe, Legg Mason! How could our idols - the fund managers ever be wrong? They are deities! Lets not question them being 45% in financials as the entire sector is collapsing!
If you are an aggrieved investors be mad at your consulting firm, your mutual fund and yourself. You bought a story that was obviously unsustainable.
Where Do I Sign Up? Combined They form Voltron!
Legg Mason is taking several managers down more than 50% ytd and combining them to one fund team for the All Cap product.
Is this like forming Voltron?
Thanks, but no, we will stay away.
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=avZFF5X_Edlc&refer=home
Is this like forming Voltron?
Thanks, but no, we will stay away.
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=avZFF5X_Edlc&refer=home
Housing Bubble and Taxes
This article in the IHT postulates that preferential tax treatment helped inflate the U.S. housing bubble.
Well, the true solution is for the U.S. to follow Singapore and Hong Kong and simply eliminate capital gains taxes on all assets. Lol, the U.S. gov though, can't keep their dirty hands of peoples' money.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/12/19/business/19tax.php
Well, the true solution is for the U.S. to follow Singapore and Hong Kong and simply eliminate capital gains taxes on all assets. Lol, the U.S. gov though, can't keep their dirty hands of peoples' money.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/12/19/business/19tax.php
Thursday, December 18, 2008
S&P Says GE May Lose AAA Rating... Really?
And we are supposed to believe the same firms that rated all of these toxic assets.
GE is not AAA. More than $100 billion of its bonds are insured by the U.S. gov.
The AAA rating is total bs and a sham. The only people holding on are shadow indexer and the stock departments of bank and trust companies.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/SampP-says-chance-GE-could-rb-13870620.html
GE is not AAA. More than $100 billion of its bonds are insured by the U.S. gov.
The AAA rating is total bs and a sham. The only people holding on are shadow indexer and the stock departments of bank and trust companies.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/SampP-says-chance-GE-could-rb-13870620.html
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Victims Don't Own 5 Mansions!
We for one, find it hard to believe that Noel was a victim."
Sickening that due diligence obviously does not exist in the fund of funds world.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/12/17/business/middle.php
Sickening that due diligence obviously does not exist in the fund of funds world.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/12/17/business/middle.php
Where Tax Payer Money Goes to Die
Here, in my core, you are all equally worthless.
Proof that you can get rich... doing nothing.
http://iht.com/articles/2008/12/18/business/18pay.php?page=1
Hard to believe the Street went bust. Guess what? They deserved it.
Proof that you can get rich... doing nothing.
http://iht.com/articles/2008/12/18/business/18pay.php?page=1
Hard to believe the Street went bust. Guess what? They deserved it.
Opec Cuts - Who Cares?
This is Speculation 101. A market that does not go up on bullish news, is not bullish.
OPEC never really cuts production ex when they used it as a weapon during the Arab Israeli War.
Besides, who will cut production when they have the world's gaudiest skyscrapers going up?
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ah2rPCVsI1zY&refer=home
OPEC never really cuts production ex when they used it as a weapon during the Arab Israeli War.
Besides, who will cut production when they have the world's gaudiest skyscrapers going up?
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ah2rPCVsI1zY&refer=home
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Our Readers Are Very Happy
Having taken advantage of the greatly depressed Japanese and mining assets that we have recommended in October.
Miners such as Allied Nevada Gold (ANV), Silver Standard Resources (SSRI), Exeter Resources (XRA) Tenaris (TS) Japanese small caps (JSC) and, 2x Nikkei 225 fund (RYJHX) have all made our readers very handsome returns in less than 2 months. Some are up more than 30% from our recommendations.
Sure, the market has bounced up, but it pays to be in the right assets as opposed to waiting for the Dow or S&P to turn up.
Miners such as Allied Nevada Gold (ANV), Silver Standard Resources (SSRI), Exeter Resources (XRA) Tenaris (TS) Japanese small caps (JSC) and, 2x Nikkei 225 fund (RYJHX) have all made our readers very handsome returns in less than 2 months. Some are up more than 30% from our recommendations.
Sure, the market has bounced up, but it pays to be in the right assets as opposed to waiting for the Dow or S&P to turn up.
We Are Now Japan , Money is Free
As yes as we have all seen the Fed cut rates to between zero and 0.25%. They smacked 75 bps off the fed funds rate.
So we are officially Japan.
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aafQgexzAGXk&refer=home
So we are officially Japan.
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aafQgexzAGXk&refer=home
Still Pathetic
The performance of Dodge & Cox International, Davis Venture et al. These guardians of widow and orphan money.
http://quicktake.morningstar.com/FundNet/Snapshot.aspx?Country=USA&pgid=hetopquote&Symbol=DODFX
Type in LMVTX, JCVIX, DODGX, NYVTX, and TAVFX for great amusement.
http://quicktake.morningstar.com/FundNet/Snapshot.aspx?Country=USA&pgid=hetopquote&Symbol=DODFX
Type in LMVTX, JCVIX, DODGX, NYVTX, and TAVFX for great amusement.
Monday, December 15, 2008
Major Madoff Victims - Fairfield Greenwich and Tremont
Both firms had over 50% of their capital allocated to Madoff. Some $3.1 billion of $5.8b at Tremont Capital and $7.5 of $14.1 billion at Fairfield Greenwich.
The reputations of the firms' has been destroyed. No high net worth advisory firm, fund of funds, or institution can have that type of risk.
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aCT_aoIRYqRg&refer=home
The reputations of the firms' has been destroyed. No high net worth advisory firm, fund of funds, or institution can have that type of risk.
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aCT_aoIRYqRg&refer=home
Sunday, December 14, 2008
Why Home Prices May Take Decades to Recover
This comes from the USA Today.
It is worth the few minutes it takes to read.
We like to say it is because housing is overvalued and over levered.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2008-12-12-homeprices_N.htm
It is worth the few minutes it takes to read.
We like to say it is because housing is overvalued and over levered.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2008-12-12-homeprices_N.htm
Friday, December 12, 2008
Baltic Dry Index
As most of you know has collapased.
from over 11,000 into the 700s. It is indicating that world trade has come to a stand still and may not recover.
We know that trade will recover, but we don't know when or to what level the BDI will rise.
Therefore, we are looking at Dryships (DRYS) the Greek based shipper. We have not finished our analysis and make no formal recommendation yet.
Investors may wish to do their own analysis.
A Fraud for All Times - Bernie Madoff
Too good to be fiction.
We suspect there will be many more of these going forward.
The best part is all of the well known "fund of funds" that were invested. Proving once again, that due diligence is a fraud!
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/145115/I-Knew-Bernie-Madoff-Was-Cheating--That%27s-Why-I-Invested-with-Him?tickers=%5Edji,&gspc,%5Eixic
We suspect there will be many more of these going forward.
The best part is all of the well known "fund of funds" that were invested. Proving once again, that due diligence is a fraud!
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/145115/I-Knew-Bernie-Madoff-Was-Cheating--That%27s-Why-I-Invested-with-Him?tickers=%5Edji,&gspc,%5Eixic
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Not Everyone Cuts Cap Ex
Japan still runs a trade surplus with the U.S. even though the yen has appreciated over 300% versus the USD since the early 1970s.
It is possible to have a strong manufacturing sector along with a strong currency.
http://iht.com/articles/2008/12/11/business/yen.php
It is possible to have a strong manufacturing sector along with a strong currency.
http://iht.com/articles/2008/12/11/business/yen.php
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
The Bubble In Treasuries
Bill Gross, the "bond king" tells us what we know. Treasuries, especially the T Bill, are wildly overvalued.
We will look for attractive values elsewhere, thank you much!
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=asgkk4AucjU8&refer=home
We will look for attractive values elsewhere, thank you much!
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=asgkk4AucjU8&refer=home
Other Miners that We are Accumulating
As medium term speculations in mining friendly jurisdictions are Exeter Resources (XRA), their Caspiche mine in Chile looks like it maybe a monster.
Andina Minerals (ADMNF) and Fortuna Silver (FVITF).
Remember we want:
1) quality management
2) quality projects
3) a friendly political climate
4) cashed up companies. We fear the credit crunch.
We have been buying in small slugs over the past few days.
We are for the bulk of our investments avoiding leverage to sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia (the stans). We find ample opportunities and better property rights in Latin America.
Andina Minerals (ADMNF) and Fortuna Silver (FVITF).
Remember we want:
1) quality management
2) quality projects
3) a friendly political climate
4) cashed up companies. We fear the credit crunch.
We have been buying in small slugs over the past few days.
We are for the bulk of our investments avoiding leverage to sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia (the stans). We find ample opportunities and better property rights in Latin America.
Accumulate Silver Standard (SSRI)
Part of our play on bludgeoned junior miners. La Pitarilla in Mexico is a monster. Las Pirquitas, looks set for Q1 2009 production.
The company is cashed up with $145m cash.
We will not pretend to have caught the bottom, but have bought a slug in the 8s and 9s per share.
As always we are not making recommendations for anyone, but outlining our personal investment decisions. We are not registered investments advisors and do not give investment advice.
The company is cashed up with $145m cash.
We will not pretend to have caught the bottom, but have bought a slug in the 8s and 9s per share.
As always we are not making recommendations for anyone, but outlining our personal investment decisions. We are not registered investments advisors and do not give investment advice.
Accumulate Rare Earth Elements at 26 Cents a Share
The bulk of rare earth elements are mined in China. They are no longer mined in the U.S. in any real amount. The Chinese have export quotas.
They include Yttrium, Europium, Cerium, and Lanthanum.
The REOs have held up better than nearly all commodity prices. REOs are used in magnets, lithium batteries, car catalysts, compact energy efficient light bulbs and technology.
They are expected to see double digit CAGR in the next 5-8 years.
The short fall of supply due to export quotas will be made up by Lynas Corp of Australia with their Mt. Weld project in western Australia. They have their "refinery" in eastern Malaysia, complete with an educated work force, infrastructure and local tax breaks.
We have begun accumulation of Lynas Corp, LYSCF today at 26 cents. It is beaten up and makes an attractive speculation to us.
http://www.lynascorp.com/
http://www.lynascorp.com/content/upload/files/Reports/(RS)_4th_Intl_RE_Conference_HK.pdf
They include Yttrium, Europium, Cerium, and Lanthanum.
The REOs have held up better than nearly all commodity prices. REOs are used in magnets, lithium batteries, car catalysts, compact energy efficient light bulbs and technology.
They are expected to see double digit CAGR in the next 5-8 years.
The short fall of supply due to export quotas will be made up by Lynas Corp of Australia with their Mt. Weld project in western Australia. They have their "refinery" in eastern Malaysia, complete with an educated work force, infrastructure and local tax breaks.
We have begun accumulation of Lynas Corp, LYSCF today at 26 cents. It is beaten up and makes an attractive speculation to us.
http://www.lynascorp.com/
http://www.lynascorp.com/content/upload/files/Reports/(RS)_4th_Intl_RE_Conference_HK.pdf
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
Clash of The Titans!
Worth a read. If I were a bondholder, I would not go for this at all!
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aH4kh3DGgOuE&refer=home
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aH4kh3DGgOuE&refer=home
Jim Chanos - The Short Selling King
This one appeared on dealbreaker.com today.
We admire anyone that didn't buy into credit and finance bubble.
All hail the New King of the Street!
http://nymag.com/news/business/52754/
We admire anyone that didn't buy into credit and finance bubble.
All hail the New King of the Street!
http://nymag.com/news/business/52754/
Monday, December 8, 2008
Sionara Apex Silver
The fabulous San Cristobal zinc and silver mine was purchased by Sumitomo Corp of Japan - one of our favorite stocks.
Sumitomo assumes full control of the mine, having owned 35% of it already for about $22 m.
Now it is on them to contend with investor's bogeyman - real or imagined - Evo Morales.
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINT29422220081117?rpc=44
Sumitomo assumes full control of the mine, having owned 35% of it already for about $22 m.
Now it is on them to contend with investor's bogeyman - real or imagined - Evo Morales.
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINT29422220081117?rpc=44
Wall Street Bonus Structure is Altered
Morgan Stanley can now hold back a portion of employee bonuses for three years, and deduct any for conduct that is "detrimental to the firm."
What took you guys so long?
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/12/09/business/09pay.php
We imagine all of what is left of the large banks will follow the same model. After all:
1) the bnaks are there to make money
2) contrary to losing their top talent, where are all of thse professionals going to go? Hiring is slim these days.
What took you guys so long?
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/12/09/business/09pay.php
We imagine all of what is left of the large banks will follow the same model. After all:
1) the bnaks are there to make money
2) contrary to losing their top talent, where are all of thse professionals going to go? Hiring is slim these days.
At Big Sister in Prague, the Sex is Free
Though it is not immune to the economic down turn. Were we an unattractive love starved man, we might book our tickets ASAP!
http://www.ticketmaster.com/artist/1178384?tm_link=edp_Artist_Name
http://www.ticketmaster.com/artist/1178384?tm_link=edp_Artist_Name
Friday, December 5, 2008
The Donald Personally Owes $40 M
On his Chicago real estate project.
Read it here:
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/12/04/business/norris05.php
We will only add that the real estate collapse is global. To think that any city in the US is immune is the height of fallacy. Some markets will hold up better than others.
Obviously each market will fall on its own time, but they will all fall. Phoenix, Miami, NYC, DC. The trend is down, it is only the magnitude and timing of each market that will differ.
Read it here:
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/12/04/business/norris05.php
We will only add that the real estate collapse is global. To think that any city in the US is immune is the height of fallacy. Some markets will hold up better than others.
Obviously each market will fall on its own time, but they will all fall. Phoenix, Miami, NYC, DC. The trend is down, it is only the magnitude and timing of each market that will differ.
Recommended Reading - Trader Vic - Methods of A Wall Street Master
For those new to, or simply wishing to brush up, on how to speculate we recommend the classic:
Trader Vic - Methods of a Wall Street Master by Victor Sperandeo.
We won't spoil it for you, but you will learn how to limit risk, look for good return vs. risk plays, and understand that the trend is in fact your friend.
http://www.amazon.com/Trader-Vic-Methods-Wall-Street-Master/dp/0471304972/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1228506725&sr=8-1
Trader Vic - Methods of a Wall Street Master by Victor Sperandeo.
We won't spoil it for you, but you will learn how to limit risk, look for good return vs. risk plays, and understand that the trend is in fact your friend.
http://www.amazon.com/Trader-Vic-Methods-Wall-Street-Master/dp/0471304972/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1228506725&sr=8-1
What Exactly is a Speculation?
Our friends at Casey Research (excellent for metals and macro trends) define an investor as someone that risks 100% of capital for a 10% gain, while a speculator risks 10% of capital for a 100% gain.
We also like Victor Sperandeo's (Trader Vic), the all world trading guru's idea that speculation is a medium term process. As the future is unknowable, it is taking a position anywhere from a few weeks to months, whereby the probability of at least a 3:1 reward to risk proposition is available.
That makes a great deal of sense. Look for something whereby you have a high likely hood of a big gain versus a small risk. Only use a small % of capital per trade or idea.
We also like Victor Sperandeo's (Trader Vic), the all world trading guru's idea that speculation is a medium term process. As the future is unknowable, it is taking a position anywhere from a few weeks to months, whereby the probability of at least a 3:1 reward to risk proposition is available.
That makes a great deal of sense. Look for something whereby you have a high likely hood of a big gain versus a small risk. Only use a small % of capital per trade or idea.
Chinese A Shares looking Better
These shares have been performing better as of late.
We like the idea of a long-term under performer, that is showing recent strength. We would also like to see a longer base, which would lead us to think that sellers have been flushed out.
Still it is worth looking at the Chinese A shares. keep this market in mind. Go long once a good base has been established in the chart.
http://bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=SHSZ300%3AIND
We like the idea of a long-term under performer, that is showing recent strength. We would also like to see a longer base, which would lead us to think that sellers have been flushed out.
Still it is worth looking at the Chinese A shares. keep this market in mind. Go long once a good base has been established in the chart.
http://bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=SHSZ300%3AIND
Chinese H Shares no Longer Acting Badly
We would keep an eye on this market. It has been decimated. It also appears to be establishing a base.
We are not Long yet, but may become so in that not too far future.
We want to see the uptrend. The market is already hated, and it appears to no longer be going down on bad news.
We also note that in comparison with other emerging markets, the currency is not a risk.
http://bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=HSCEI%3AIND
We are not Long yet, but may become so in that not too far future.
We want to see the uptrend. The market is already hated, and it appears to no longer be going down on bad news.
We also note that in comparison with other emerging markets, the currency is not a risk.
http://bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=HSCEI%3AIND
533k jobs lost
The worst in 34 years. Lay offs will get worse.
Interestingly enough, the stock market is not reacting poorly, which is a good sign.
We have noted several times that when the bottom (either short or long term is in), stocks will no longer go down, but up on bad news.
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLgwfpZSD.R0&refer=home
Interestingly enough, the stock market is not reacting poorly, which is a good sign.
We have noted several times that when the bottom (either short or long term is in), stocks will no longer go down, but up on bad news.
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLgwfpZSD.R0&refer=home
One in Ten
Are behind on their mortgage or delinquent. We assure people that it will get much worse.
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=acuPdrV_UdoQ&refer=home
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=acuPdrV_UdoQ&refer=home
Thursday, December 4, 2008
More Wall Street BS
Sure the economy sucks, but the rich will keep spending! How many times did we hear that bunk in 2008. Buy Tiffany's, Hermes, Bulgari etc...
You can still short them and make a pile.
http://iht.com/articles/2008/12/04/style/04shopping.php
You can still short them and make a pile.
http://iht.com/articles/2008/12/04/style/04shopping.php
$25 Crude?
Crude is in the low 40s? What is our prediction as to how far it goes?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Oil-tumbles-below-44-a-barrel-apf-13749673.html
The same as any asset that is going down (including commodities) which we have written about - until it stops going down.
Clever as we are, we are no Wall Street Strategists, those gurus of old that predicted last year in Barons that the S&P would be around 1600 at the end of this year!
They can even tell you the day and the price that Google, GE, the S&P, crude , gold, and anything else will be. They will go on CNBC, Bloomberg, Forbes, the WSJ. And they will almost certainly be wrong!
What we emphasize is that prices go up until they stop. They go down until there are more buyers than sellers. It has always been this way. Target prices and dates sound intelligent, but they are useless.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Oil-tumbles-below-44-a-barrel-apf-13749673.html
The same as any asset that is going down (including commodities) which we have written about - until it stops going down.
Clever as we are, we are no Wall Street Strategists, those gurus of old that predicted last year in Barons that the S&P would be around 1600 at the end of this year!
They can even tell you the day and the price that Google, GE, the S&P, crude , gold, and anything else will be. They will go on CNBC, Bloomberg, Forbes, the WSJ. And they will almost certainly be wrong!
What we emphasize is that prices go up until they stop. They go down until there are more buyers than sellers. It has always been this way. Target prices and dates sound intelligent, but they are useless.
Why Real Estate is Nowhere Near A Bottom
Why? Because if a December 2, 2008 piece in the WSJ is to be believed, it is because most Americans expect prices to rebound shortly.
Once again, secular bottoms are characterized by a total lack of interest, only after the massive distressed selling has occured. We aren't anywhere near there yet.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122764977315457619.html
Once again, secular bottoms are characterized by a total lack of interest, only after the massive distressed selling has occured. We aren't anywhere near there yet.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122764977315457619.html
Sionara Trophy Wife!
Is it really that hard to tell a gold-digger when you first meet one?
Lol, if you aren't handsome and funny, or at least an interesting person, assume if you are rich and throwing the coin around that she doesn't love you. It will be on the mark!
Yet Susie Ambrose thinks such women ''are like businessmen – utterly ruthless". The rich man is the career path, the meal ticket, and it doesn't matter how fat, old, balding or unattractive he is – it's solely about money.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/3527803/Recession-When-the-money-goes-so-does-the-toxic-wife.html
Lol, if you aren't handsome and funny, or at least an interesting person, assume if you are rich and throwing the coin around that she doesn't love you. It will be on the mark!
Yet Susie Ambrose thinks such women ''are like businessmen – utterly ruthless". The rich man is the career path, the meal ticket, and it doesn't matter how fat, old, balding or unattractive he is – it's solely about money.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/3527803/Recession-When-the-money-goes-so-does-the-toxic-wife.html
Middle East Real Estate Bubble Goes Pop!
Which should be a surprise to no one, especially our readers.
Gee too much money chasing tacky trophies (sounds like modern art). Oh wait our biggest export has fallen by 2/3 in value and now no one can either afford, nor wants these awful things.
Shocking!
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a2jrSPqYhVzY&refer=home
Gee too much money chasing tacky trophies (sounds like modern art). Oh wait our biggest export has fallen by 2/3 in value and now no one can either afford, nor wants these awful things.
Shocking!
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a2jrSPqYhVzY&refer=home
No Chrysler Bailout!
It is an offense against the entire American public to provide one dime of taxpayer money for Chrysler. Why?
Because it was bought for $7.4b by NYC based Cerberus, a Private equity fund. They knew the risks. let their stake go to zero.
Because it was bought for $7.4b by NYC based Cerberus, a Private equity fund. They knew the risks. let their stake go to zero.
New Housing Bailout Proposal and Why it Won't Work
According to stories in Yahoo and the WSJ, the gov will attempt to push rates for new qualified buyers on new home purchases to 4.5%. We are early to say it won't work.
Why? Several reasons :
1) People fear layoffs or getting their hours cut back, so there is no need to take out such large debt.
2) Too many homeowners already. Housing was pushed to a level whereby everyone, including just out of college students and illegal immigrants that wanted a house, bought a house.
3) Psychology has changed. It was the grandest bubble of all time. People bought simply because prices were going up. Not because they needed to own, or because there was value. When a bubble bursts, the mind shift changes. It won't end until people are totally indifferent to owning versus renting. Why take out a huge loan now, even if one can afford it, when prices are only going down?
4) The Japanese experience shows that you can push mortgages rates to less than 2% and housing can still be down 60%+ from its all-time high 17 years later. The money is free in Japan, but guess what? No one wants to own. They believe that housing is a bad investment, and it has been in Japan since 1991. Prices have only begun rebounding in the last few years.
Housing will bottom, as we have said before, at lower prices and when people believe that one only ever loses money in real estate. That is how all bubbles have, and always will, reach a bottom.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/138829/Mortgage-Rates-to-4.5-Percent-Homebuilders-Win-Crisis-Continues?tickers=TOL,HOV,CTX,DHI,LEN,XHB,CTX
Why? Several reasons :
1) People fear layoffs or getting their hours cut back, so there is no need to take out such large debt.
2) Too many homeowners already. Housing was pushed to a level whereby everyone, including just out of college students and illegal immigrants that wanted a house, bought a house.
3) Psychology has changed. It was the grandest bubble of all time. People bought simply because prices were going up. Not because they needed to own, or because there was value. When a bubble bursts, the mind shift changes. It won't end until people are totally indifferent to owning versus renting. Why take out a huge loan now, even if one can afford it, when prices are only going down?
4) The Japanese experience shows that you can push mortgages rates to less than 2% and housing can still be down 60%+ from its all-time high 17 years later. The money is free in Japan, but guess what? No one wants to own. They believe that housing is a bad investment, and it has been in Japan since 1991. Prices have only begun rebounding in the last few years.
Housing will bottom, as we have said before, at lower prices and when people believe that one only ever loses money in real estate. That is how all bubbles have, and always will, reach a bottom.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/138829/Mortgage-Rates-to-4.5-Percent-Homebuilders-Win-Crisis-Continues?tickers=TOL,HOV,CTX,DHI,LEN,XHB,CTX
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Hot Off the Presses - Recession . . . Really?
The NBER has officially confirmed that a recession began in December of 2007.
Really? Considering that all the bulk of post 9-11 growth was real estate related and 40% of all jobs created were related to housing and HELOCs, the only ones that didn't know we were in a recession were Wall Street strategists and the clowns at the Fed!
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081202/meltdown_recession_analysis.html
Really? Considering that all the bulk of post 9-11 growth was real estate related and 40% of all jobs created were related to housing and HELOCs, the only ones that didn't know we were in a recession were Wall Street strategists and the clowns at the Fed!
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081202/meltdown_recession_analysis.html
The Latest Bubble
Clearly the 30 year bond which is yielding in the 3.18% range. Add in the 10 year at 2.69%.
Yes, we know about the economic carnage, falling commodity prices, assets of all types, but would anyone with good sense lend the U.S. government money that far out? The U.S. gov is bankrupt everyone knows it. Add it Social Security, Medicare and the 50% of GDP that has already been allocated to bailouts and the only option left is to debase the currency.
We don't know if the dollar will drop vis a vis the yen, Euro, or Pound. We do know that you can guarantee it will lose value over the next 10 through 30 years in terms of groceries, gold, college tuition and health care.
There is currently asset deflation, but for most Americans the cost of health care, tuition, groceries, utilities, fees to renew a driver's license, register a car, myriad of sales and incomes taxes is not dropping one bit.
Don't be fooled. We are not experiencing real deflation, but deflating asset prices. Daily costs are not falling.
We look at treasuries as the "last bubble standing." Trade it if you have the skill, don't buy and hold.
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aujABg8jkhqg&refer=home
Yes, we know about the economic carnage, falling commodity prices, assets of all types, but would anyone with good sense lend the U.S. government money that far out? The U.S. gov is bankrupt everyone knows it. Add it Social Security, Medicare and the 50% of GDP that has already been allocated to bailouts and the only option left is to debase the currency.
We don't know if the dollar will drop vis a vis the yen, Euro, or Pound. We do know that you can guarantee it will lose value over the next 10 through 30 years in terms of groceries, gold, college tuition and health care.
There is currently asset deflation, but for most Americans the cost of health care, tuition, groceries, utilities, fees to renew a driver's license, register a car, myriad of sales and incomes taxes is not dropping one bit.
Don't be fooled. We are not experiencing real deflation, but deflating asset prices. Daily costs are not falling.
We look at treasuries as the "last bubble standing." Trade it if you have the skill, don't buy and hold.
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aujABg8jkhqg&refer=home
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