Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Why We are Skeptical of "Hot" ETFs

We actually love ETFs and believe that investors and speculators should learn to use them.

What we dislike is when we see a proliferation of "hot" new etfs. Usually the idea is demand driven, as investors pile aboard the latest mania. No one was offering coal etfs when coal stocks were at mulit-year lows.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=FRN#chart2:symbol=frn;range=my;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined


2007 and 2008 saw a rash of ag, coal (any commodity really), and then worst of all frontier markets funds. Middle East, North Africa etc. . .

The point investors should remember is that by the time that hot new 'frontier markets" etf comes out the party is nearly over.

We will use the Ukraine PFTS Index as an example. If one goes back to a 5 year chart or older, one can easily see that the market had already gone up 12 fold! Yet, investors found the need to buy frontier market funds at the peak!

Please, learn to spot trends early, and don't think for one second that you can buy and hold any market after it has already gone up 12 fold.

http://bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=PFTS%3AIND

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