Monday, January 5, 2009

What is the Point of Creative Destruction?

Firstly, what is it not? It is not to be your personal portfolio manager and to give you the exact percentage and timing to the day of our own portfolio moves.

Though we do try to be transparent when we find new ideas. Each person must be responsible for the risk that they take and the size of their positions.

The point of Creative Destruction is primarily to make our readers think. We emphasize that there is risk in every investment, even those of the deepest blue chips. We know that the market is all fear and greed. it has been and always ill be. It is man's nature, and human nature does not change.

Therefore, we strive to find less crowded unique opportunities, that have favorable upside to downside potential. We look for at least 3 to 1. Then we invest small amounts is speculative longs, or special situation longs. We emphasize commodity stocks that are beaten up, less owned than large cap stocks, and that often have a kicker such as pending legislation on a mine, or a potentially large new discovery. We understand supply and demand. We can't predict how many Ipods will be sold next year, but we understand that if there is not enough silver, it goes up.

We prefer ETFs such as Ishares for our core holdings (non speculative) rather than forking over fees to bloated mutual funds. learn how to use them.

We employ a combination of technical analysis to keep us from trying to catch falling knives ( ie the comedy that was value managers and financials stocks in 2008!). We combine technical analysis with a top-down macro view of the world, and use a basket approach to buying stocks, never risking too much in one theme or individual holding. Then we will use common sense fundamental analysis on individual shares. Does management create shareholder value, does the firm hold ample cash for Cap ex, is it low on debt, given the higher cost of funding?

We also try to impress upon readers that they must should be skeptical of both government and the financial services industry. Trillions of dollars are forked over annually to managers that are great at taking fees.

Finally, we want our readers to enjoy their lives. Food, wine, drink, a fine shirt, good book, even an occasional smoke, and to spend time with their families and friends.

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